🏒 NHL · Beta

Tonight's Shots-on-Goal Projections

Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights · Sun Jun 14, 8:20 PM ET

Our shooter-vs-goalie SOG model's projected shots on goal vs the market line. 13 notable model leans tonight.

This is a beta model in live forward-testing. These are model projections, not vetted picks — the NHL model has no published record yet and we're grading it against real results before claiming any edge. The model currently uses season-average ice time (no confirmed playoff lines), so it can over-project depth skaters. Read it as a signal, not a green light. For entertainment only. 21+.

The game

Carolina Hurricanes 3.31 — 3.10 Vegas Golden Knights (projected goals · total 6.41)

Moneyline

Carolina Hurricanes52% · model -107 · mkt -115

Vegas Golden Knights48% · model +107 · mkt -104

Total (goals)

Model proj6.41

Market line6.0

Model O / U46% / 54%

We defer to the market on totals.

Puck line (±1.5)

Carolina Hurricanes +1.576% · mkt +220

Vegas Golden Knights −1.524% · mkt -270

Player props — shots on goal

Skater	Team	Proj SOG	Line	Model lean
Alexander Nikishin	CAR	1.45	0.5	Over +0.95
Taylor Hall	CAR	1.64	2.5	Under -0.86
Tomas Hertl	VGK	2.33	1.5	Over +0.83
Jack Eichel	VGK	3.29	2.5	Over +0.79
Eric Robinson	CAR	1.22	0.5	Over +0.72
Sean Walker	CAR	2.10	1.5	Over +0.60
Rasmus Andersson	VGK	2.08	1.5	Over +0.58
Mitch Marner	VGK	1.93	2.5	Under -0.57
Logan Stankoven	CAR	1.95	2.5	Under -0.55
Mark Stone	VGK	2.05	1.5	Over +0.55
Shayne Gostisbehere	CAR	2.00	1.5	Over +0.50
Seth Jarvis	CAR	2.97	2.5	Over +0.47
Jackson Blake	CAR	2.04	2.5	Under -0.46
Brett Howden	VGK	1.11	1.5	—
Noah Hanifin	VGK	1.81	1.5	—
Shea Theodore	VGK	1.76	1.5	—
Jalen Chatfield	CAR	1.34	1.5	—
Sebastian Aho	CAR	2.34	2.5	—
Jordan Martinook	CAR	1.36	1.5	—
K'Andre Miller	CAR	1.64	1.5	—
Pavel Dorofeyev	VGK	2.64	2.5	—
Jordan Staal	CAR	1.38	1.5	—
Nikolaj Ehlers	CAR	2.40	2.5	—
Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	2.43	2.5	—
Ivan Barbashev	VGK	1.55	1.5	—
Jaccob Slavin	CAR	1.55	1.5	—

Projections generated 2026-06-13 21:06 UTC. Method mirrors our MLB matchup model — recency-weighted shot rate shrunk to league mean, opponent shot-suppression, rest/B2B — see How It Works. The full shooter-vs-goalie shot-quality layer (for goals) is in development.

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