One MLB pick a day. Built on the same kinds of inputs bookmakers weigh — projected runs, line movement, situational context — and made public so you can see every win and every loss.
For each starting batter we take a 3-year weighted xwOBA baseline (current season 45%, prior 35%, two years ago 20%) and run it through a Pythagorean run-expectancy model. That's how many runs the lineup should produce against an average pitcher in an average park.
Opposing starter quality (xERA tier + velocity trend) and handedness splits. Bullpen availability scaled by expected inning share. Park run factor. Game-time weather (wind direction + speed, temperature). 14-day form. Schedule strength.
For every game we compute three numbers: moneyline edge (percentage points), runline edge (runs vs the spread), and total edge (runs vs O/U). Anything inside ±1pp / ±0.5 runs we treat as noise.
Pitcher third time through the lineup. Wind blowing out 12+ mph. Team coming off a shutout. Bullpen depleted from yesterday's blowout. Each trend is back-tested against 32,000+ historical games (Princeton + SBR + OddsPortal databases, 2010-2025) and only counted if the sample is large enough to be real signal.
Composite = 35% projection edge + 25% confidence + 25% situational alignment + 15% edge size. Then a Kelly bet/pass gate filters out picks that look real but don't clear minimum confidence + edge thresholds.
At 9 AM ET we pull actual game results from MLB Stats API, settle yesterday's pick (win / loss / push), and update the public record. No quietly deleting losses. No "we were 50-0 in May" charts.
Free users get the daily pick + the running record. Paid tiers unlock the full Betting Analysis grid (every game's ML/RL/Total leans with edge and confidence), Game Deep Dives with pitcher matchups and lineup projections, and a Pick Tracker with personal P&L. Everything is the same engine output — we don't have "premium picks" we're hiding from free users. The free tier shows you the strongest play; paid tiers show you the full board.
Most pick services flood you with plays because volume hides the losses — if you "won 6 of 10," nobody notices the 4 losses. We post one play because that's what the model is actually highest-confidence on. If today's board is weak, the Kelly gate says PASS and we don't tweet a pick. That happens. It's the honest version.
Live dashboard with the day's strongest play, supporting trends, and the running record — free.
Open the dashboardFor entertainment purposes only. Not financial or betting advice.