every Week 1 game with a posted line (49 so far), refreshed daily, model vs market, free with any account — NFL's Week 1 board is live too. MLB has been live and public since 2026-05-22: one play-or-PASS a day, every result kept in view (it's been mostly PASS lately — that's the Kelly gate holding discipline, not the model going quiet).
SportsEdgePicks is a multi-sport platform — the same transparent, market-aware, every-result-public approach, sport by sport. MLB and NHL are live now. Here's the full rollout.
One play-or-PASS a day. Pitcher-first projections, bullpen context, Kelly gate — every result public.
Live · BetaShooter-vs-goalie shots-on-goal projections — the granular matchup edge. Live now in beta, graded in public.
Coming soonPlayer props and totals, built on pace and matchup. Coming soon.
Live · Wk 1 BoardFree Week 1 board — model spreads and totals vs the early lines, refreshed daily. Full picks and props arrive with the season, bundled with MVP.
Live · Wk 1 BoardFree Week 1 board — model-projected scores, spreads and totals vs the early Vegas lines, refreshed daily. Picks arrive at kickoff.
Coming soonTempo-free ratings into sides, totals, and March edges. Coming soon.
The most recent play, settled against the actual final score. Every previous pick is logged the same way.
In the 2026 season, when the betting market moved a totals line before first pitch, our model was already on the side it moved toward 60% of the time (86 of 143 moves of half a run or more). We publish at lineup confirmation — before the move. The market then corrects toward a number we'd already posted.
That's closing-line value — the earliest honest evidence a model carries real information. Predicting the line's move is not the same as winning the bet; we track entry-vs-close CLV on every published play and report it either way. How we measure this →
Live tracker (since June 10): on the move's side in 93 of 141 totals moves (66.0%) · totals CLV on our leans +0.02 runs · 837 games snapshotted. Server-rendered from the grading database — published either way.
Free users see the matchup. Pro unlocks the pick, edge, Kelly sizing, and full reasoning.
Same kinds of inputs bookmakers weigh, made transparent. Full breakdown on the methodology page.
MLB: 3-year weighted xwOBA → a run-expectancy projection for each lineup. NHL: every shooter's shot profile vs the exact goalie he's facing → projected shots on goal. Advanced stats, matchup by matchup.
MLB: starter & bullpen quality, park, weather, handedness, recent form. NHL: goalie quality & rest, pace, ice time. Then we compare every projection to the closing line.
MLB: one play a day, filtered by a Kelly bet/pass gate — and when the edge isn't there, we publish the PASS. NHL: beta projections, forward-tested in the open. Every result public, win or lose.
Built so a free signup is genuinely useful — and so paying gets you the full board, line context, and Kelly verdict.
Trust-building. See the record and the published process before you pay.
Today's full pick + the full board, line context, and Kelly verdict.
For people who want the full audit trail. NFL bundled when it ships.
Drop your email — you'll get tomorrow's matchup and our public record update at 2:05 PM ET. (The lean, edge, and Kelly verdict unlock with Pro.) No password, no friction. Unsubscribe with one click in any email.
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