🏈 2026 College Football — Week 1 Board
Model-projected scores vs the early Vegas lines · updated Jul 22, 2026 17:10 UTC · lines move — this page refreshes daily
49 Week-1 games projected
49 with early lines
10 Blowout-Over system flags
.613 holdout margin corr (Vegas .646)
🔒
Model projections & system flags are free with an account.
Matchups and Vegas lines are public — the model board unlocks when you sign in.
Create free account → Log inGames with early lines
| Date | Matchup | Vegas spread/total | Model spread/total | Projected score | Flags |
|---|
| Sat Aug 29 | North Carolina @ TCU N | -6.5 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Aug 29 | San José State @ USC | -35.5 / 57.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Aug 29 | NC State @ Virginia | -4.2 / 54.0 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Aug 29 | New Mexico State @ Florida State | -30.0 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Aug 29 | Hawai'i @ Stanford | -3.2 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Aug 30 | Memphis @ UNLV | -3.2 / 59.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Thu Sep 3 | Massachusetts @ Rutgers | -30.5 / – | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Thu Sep 3 | Akron @ Wake Forest | -22.5 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Fri Sep 4 | Colorado @ Georgia Tech | -7.2 / 51.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Fri Sep 4 | UAB @ Illinois | -27.5 / 56.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Fri Sep 4 | San José State @ Eastern Michigan | -3.8 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Toledo @ Michigan State | -10.5 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | UTEP @ Oklahoma | -40.5 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Miami @ Stanford | +22.0 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Fresno State @ USC | -23.5 / 51.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | East Carolina @ Alabama | -26.0 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Oregon State @ Houston | -18.5 / 51.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | North Texas @ Indiana | -40.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Liberty @ James Madison | -6.0 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Ohio @ Nebraska | -23.5 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh | -16.0 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | -17.5 / 57.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Ball State @ Ohio State | -50.0 / 56.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Kent State @ South Carolina | -34.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Baylor @ Auburn N | -6.8 / 59.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Boston College @ Cincinnati | -8.5 / 54.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Tulane @ Duke | -9.0 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Boise State @ Oregon | -24.5 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Marshall @ Penn State | -23.5 / 54.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Texas State @ Texas | -30.5 / 59.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | +12.0 / 61.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Northern Illinois @ Iowa | -30.0 / 43.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Wyoming @ Colorado State | -4.0 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Arkansas State @ Memphis | -10.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Florida International @ South Florida | -12.5 / 54.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Missouri State @ Texas A&M | -38.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Sam Houston @ Troy | -17.0 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Clemson @ LSU | -11.0 / 50.0 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Western Michigan @ Michigan | -26.5 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | UL Monroe @ Mississippi State | -28.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sat Sep 5 | Florida Atlantic @ Florida | -26.0 / 56.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | UNLV @ Hawai'i | +1.5 / 58.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | Central Michigan @ New Mexico | -12.5 / – | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | UCLA @ California | -1.5 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | Western Kentucky @ Nevada | +3.5 / 53.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | Washington State @ Washington | -21.5 / 50.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | Louisville @ Ole Miss N | -6.5 / 55.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 6 | Notre Dame @ Wisconsin N | +20.5 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Mon Sep 7 | SMU @ Florida State | +2.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
Want the picks, not just the projections?
At kickoff, SportsEdge Pro gets the full weekly card: four 20-year-validated totals systems (incl. the 61–68% premium Blowout-Over spot), model-confluence green lights, and edge alerts.
See Pro plans →
Awaiting lines (0)
| Date | Matchup | Vegas | Model spread/total | Projected score | |
|---|
Methodology & honesty. Projections come from our locked CFB model: a rush/pass yards-matchup engine
(each offense vs that defense, schedule-adjusted) converted to points via team yards-per-point, ensembled with a
garbage-time-filtered efficiency model. Walk-forward validated on 2021–2025: margin correlation .586 (holdout season .613 vs the
closing line's .646), totals essentially at the closing line's accuracy. Week-1 numbers are preseason ratings (last season's
units + regression; 2026 returning-production data isn't published yet — ratings sharpen when it is, and weekly in-season).
"Blowout Over" flags come from a 20-year validated totals system. Early lines move; nothing here is betting advice.
For entertainment purposes only. 21+.