🏈 2026 NFL — Week 1 Board
Model-projected scores vs the opening Vegas lines · updated Jul 22, 2026 17:25 UTC · lines move — this page refreshes daily
16 Week-1 games projected
16 with opening lines
6 validated system flags
totals at closing-line grade (2025 holdout)
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Model projections & system flags are free with an account.
Matchups and Vegas lines are public — the model board unlocks when you sign in.
Create free account → Log in📉 Opening-week note: Week-1 games have gone UNDER the total 54.7% of the time across 27 seasons (rust beats rhythm) — a league-wide lean, so we note it once here instead of flagging every game.
| Date | Matchup | Vegas spread/total | Model spread/total | Projected score | System flags |
|---|
| Wed Sep 9 | NE @ SEA | +3.5 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Thu Sep 10 | SF @ LA N | +3.5 / 48.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | CHI @ CAR | -2.5 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | TB @ CIN | +3.5 / 52.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | NO @ DET | +7.0 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | BUF @ HOU | -1.5 / 44.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | BAL @ IND | -3.5 / 49.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | CLE @ JAX | +7.5 / 40.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | ATL @ PIT | +3.0 / 41.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | NYJ @ TEN | +2.5 / 38.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | ARI @ LAC | +10.5 / 46.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | MIA @ LV | +3.5 / 40.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | GB @ MIN | -1.5 / 45.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | WAS @ PHI | +4.5 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sun Sep 13 | DAL @ NYG | -2.5 / 47.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Mon Sep 14 | DEN @ KC | +3.0 / 42.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
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Methodology & honesty. Projections come from our locked NFL model: a rush/pass yards-matchup engine
(each offense vs that defense, schedule-adjusted) converted to points via blended team yards-per-point, ensembled with an
EPA + success-rate efficiency model. Walk-forward validated on 2015–2025; on the untouched 2025 season the totals projection
matched the Vegas closing line's accuracy, and margins land within ~a half-point of market average error. Week-1 numbers are
preseason ratings (65% last-season units, regressed to league) — they sharpen weekly once games are played. System flags are
era-validated situational spots (each held in both halves of a 27-year sample). Opening lines move; nothing here is betting
advice. For entertainment purposes only. 21+.