Ratings use completed games through Week 2, blended with the preseason prior (32 teams eligible).
🏈 2026 NFL Week 3 — Game Deep Dives
The model's full matchup math for this week's slate: each offense vs that defense → expected yards → points via yards-per-point, cross-checked by the EPA engine · updated Sep 25, 2026 11:15 UTC
ATL @ GB Thu Sep 24
Vegas: +4.5 / 43.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs GB D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| GB vs ATL D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
LAC @ BUF Sun Sep 27
Vegas: +7.0 / 50.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC vs BUF D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| BUF vs LAC D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
CAR @ CLE Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -2.5 / 42.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR vs CLE D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| CLE vs CAR D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
NYJ @ DET Sun Sep 27
Vegas: +6.5 / 47.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ vs DET D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| DET vs NYJ D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
HOU @ IND Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -1.5 / 42.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU vs IND D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| IND vs HOU D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
NE @ JAX Sun Sep 27
Vegas: +3.0 / 46.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE vs JAX D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| JAX vs NE D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
KC @ MIA Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -10.5 / 45.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC vs MIA D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| MIA vs KC D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
TEN @ NYG Sun Sep 27
Vegas: +2.5 / 38.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN vs NYG D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| NYG vs TEN D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
CIN @ PIT Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -3.5 / 42.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN vs PIT D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| PIT vs CIN D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
SEA @ WAS Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -7.5 / 40.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA vs WAS D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| WAS vs SEA D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
ARI @ SF Sun Sep 27
Vegas: +8.5 / 47.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI vs SF D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| SF vs ARI D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
MIN @ TB Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -1.5 / 42.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN vs TB D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| TB vs MIN D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
BAL @ DAL Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -3.5 / 53.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL vs DAL D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| DAL vs BAL D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
LV @ NO Sun Sep 27
Vegas: +3.0 / 43.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV vs NO D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| NO vs LV D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
LA @ DEN Sun Sep 27
Vegas: -2.5 / 44.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA vs DEN D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| DEN vs LA D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
PHI @ CHI Mon Sep 28
Vegas: -4.5 / 41.5 · Model: 🔒 (spread is home-based)
| Proj rush yds | Proj pass yds | Total yds | Yards / point | Yards engine | EPA engine | Final pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI vs CHI D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
| CHI vs PHI D | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Proj plays (away/home): 🔒
· System flags: 🔒
How to read this. "Proj rush/pass yds" = that offense's schedule-adjusted output against this specific defense.
"Yards / point" = how many yards this offense historically needs per point, blended with what this defense concedes.
The yards engine converts expected yards to points; the EPA engine projects points from per-play efficiency × pace; the final score
uses the yards-engine total and the average of the two margin estimates (+2 home field, except neutral sites).
Not betting advice. 21+.